Implied Probability Calculator
Convert betting odds to implied probability and understand the true probability of outcomes
What is Implied Probability?
Implied Probability is the probability of an outcome as implied by the bookmaker's odds. It represents what the bookmaker believes is the likelihood of an event occurring, expressed as a percentage. Understanding implied probability is crucial for identifying value bets and making informed betting decisions.
How Implied Probability Works
The formula for calculating implied probability depends on the odds format:
- Decimal Odds: Implied Probability = (1 / Decimal Odds) × 100
- American Odds (Positive): Implied Probability = 100 / (American Odds + 100) × 100
- American Odds (Negative): Implied Probability = |American Odds| / (|American Odds| + 100) × 100
- Fractional Odds: Implied Probability = Denominator / (Numerator + Denominator) × 100
Why Use an Implied Probability Calculator?
- Identify Value Bets: Compare implied probability with your own probability assessment
- Understand Bookmaker Margins: See how much the bookmaker is charging (vig)
- Make Informed Decisions: Convert odds to percentages for easier comparison
- Risk Assessment: Understand the true likelihood of outcomes
How to Use Our Implied Probability Calculator
Simply enter the odds in your preferred format (Decimal, American, or Fractional) and our calculator will instantly convert them to implied probability percentage. This helps you quickly assess whether a bet offers value based on your own probability estimates.
Combine this with our Expected Value Calculator to find profitable bets, or use our No-Vig Fair Odds Calculator to remove bookmaker margins and find true probabilities.
Key Considerations
Remember that implied probability includes the bookmaker's margin (vig). For single odds, the true probability is the same as implied probability. When comparing multiple outcomes (like in a match), the total implied probability will exceed 100% due to the bookmaker's built-in margin.