Expected Value Calculator
Calculate the expected value of your bets to make informed betting decisions
What is Expected Value in Betting?
Expected Value (EV) is a fundamental concept in sports betting that helps you determine whether a bet is profitable in the long run. It represents the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet when placing the same bet repeatedly. A positive EV indicates a profitable bet, while a negative EV suggests you'll lose money over time.
How Expected Value Works
The Expected Value formula is: EV = (Probability of Win × Amount Won) - (Probability of Loss × Amount Lost). This calculation takes into account both the probability of winning and the potential payout, giving you a clear picture of the bet's long-term profitability.
Why Use an Expected Value Calculator?
- Make Informed Decisions: Identify which bets offer positive expected value before placing them
- Long-term Profitability: Focus on bets that will be profitable over many repetitions
- Risk Assessment: Understand the potential returns and risks of each bet
- Bankroll Management: Use EV calculations to determine appropriate bet sizes
How to Use Our Expected Value Calculator
Enter the bookmaker's odds, your estimated probability of the outcome occurring, and your stake amount. Our calculator will instantly compute the expected value both as a percentage and in dollar terms, helping you make data-driven betting decisions.
Combine this with our Kelly Criterion Calculator to determine optimal bet sizes, or use our No-Vig Fair Odds Calculator to find true probabilities without bookmaker margins.
Key Considerations
Remember that Expected Value is based on your probability assessment. The more accurate your probability estimates, the more reliable your EV calculations will be. Also, while positive EV bets are mathematically profitable in the long run, short-term results can still vary significantly due to variance.