Matched markets
Polymarket ↔ Kalshi matches with similarity score. Prices (implied prob %) when available from last scan.
| Polymarket | Kalshi | Score | Poly YES% | Poly NO% | Kalshi YES% | Kalshi NO% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? Open → | Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? Open → | 1.000 | 17.0% (0.1700) | 84.0% (0.8400) | 13.0% (0.1300) | 88.0% (0.8800) | ✓ | |
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Open → | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Open → | 1.000 | 33.0% (0.3300) | 69.0% (0.6900) | 38.0% (0.3800) | 68.0% (0.6800) | ✓ | |
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Open → | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Open → | 1.000 | 33.0% (0.3300) | 69.0% (0.6900) | 35.0% (0.3500) | 66.9% (0.6690) | ✓ | |
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Open → | Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? Open → | 1.000 | 32.0% (0.3200) | 73.0% (0.7300) | 32.0% (0.3200) | 72.0% (0.7200) | ✓ | |
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Open → | Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Open → | 1.000 | 27.0% (0.2700) | 74.0% (0.7400) | 33.0% (0.3300) | 68.0% (0.6800) | ✓ | |
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Open → | Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Open → | 0.990 | 16.0% (0.1600) | 85.0% (0.8500) | 16.5% (0.1650) | 83.6% (0.8360) | ✓ | |
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? Open → | Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album in 2026? Open → | 0.967 | 67.0% (0.6700) | 40.0% (0.4000) | 70.0% (0.7000) | 48.0% (0.4800) | ✓ | |
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2026? Open → | Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new album in 2026? Open → | 0.967 | 99.6% (0.9960) | 2.4% (0.0240) | 100.0% (1.0000) | 1.0% (0.0100) | ✓ | |
Will Playboi Carti release an album in 2026? Open → | Will Playboi Carti release a new album in 2026? Open → | 0.966 | 48.0% (0.4800) | 66.0% (0.6600) | 46.0% (0.4600) | 70.0% (0.7000) | ✓ | |
Will Justin Bieber release an album in 2026? Open → | Will Justin Bieber release a new album in 2026? Open → | 0.966 | 68.0% (0.6800) | 57.0% (0.5700) | 50.0% (0.5000) | 65.0% (0.6500) | ✓ | |
Will Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026? Open → | Will Lana Del Rey release a new album in 2026? Open → | 0.966 | 62.0% (0.6200) | 86.0% (0.8600) | 73.0% (0.7300) | 33.0% (0.3300) | ✓ | |
Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2026? Open → | Will Frank Ocean release a new album in 2026? Open → | 0.965 | 22.0% (0.2200) | 84.0% (0.8400) | 86.0% (0.8600) | 97.0% (0.9700) | ✓ | |
Will Frank Ocean release an album in 2026? Open → | Will Frank Ocean release a new album in 2026? Open → | 0.965 | 22.0% (0.2200) | 84.0% (0.8400) | 24.0% (0.2400) | 84.0% (0.8400) | ✓ | |
Will Bad Bunny release an album in 2026? Open → | Will Bad Bunny release a new album in 2026? Open → | 0.963 | 72.0% (0.7200) | 88.0% (0.8800) | 44.0% (0.4400) | 70.0% (0.7000) | ✓ | |
Will Rihanna release an album in 2026? Open → | Will Rihanna release a new album in 2026? Open → | 0.961 | 33.0% (0.3300) | 88.0% (0.8800) | 32.0% (0.3200) | 72.0% (0.7200) | ✓ | |
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Open → | Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.940 | 17.0% (0.1700) | 84.0% (0.8400) | 24.0% (0.2400) | 80.0% (0.8000) | ✓ | |
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Open → | Will Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.935 | 19.0% (0.1900) | 84.0% (0.8400) | 18.0% (0.1800) | 85.0% (0.8500) | ✓ | |
New pandemic in 2026? Open → | Pandemic in 2026? Open → | 0.889 | 11.0% (0.1100) | 90.0% (0.9000) | 11.0% (0.1100) | 90.0% (0.9000) | ✓ | |
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? Open → | Will Exponent launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.889 | 34.0% (0.3400) | 70.0% (0.7000) | 37.0% (0.3700) | 70.0% (0.7000) | ✓ | |
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? Open → | Will MetaMask launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.889 | 32.0% (0.3200) | 69.0% (0.6900) | 31.0% (0.3100) | 74.0% (0.7400) | ✓ | |
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? Open → | Will Phantom launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.886 | 11.0% (0.1100) | 90.0% (0.9000) | 16.0% (0.1600) | 89.0% (0.8900) | ✓ | |
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Open → | Will OpenSea launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.886 | 64.7% (0.6470) | 40.8% (0.4080) | 60.0% (0.6000) | 47.0% (0.4700) | ✓ | |
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? Open → | Will Ostium launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.883 | 66.0% (0.6600) | 43.0% (0.4300) | 61.0% (0.6100) | 46.0% (0.4600) | ✓ | |
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Open → | Will Tempo launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.880 | 22.0% (0.2200) | 80.0% (0.8000) | 27.0% (0.2700) | 80.0% (0.8000) | ✓ | |
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? Open → | Will Rabby launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.880 | 15.0% (0.1500) | 87.0% (0.8700) | 28.0% (0.2800) | 80.0% (0.8000) | ✓ | |
Will Donald Trump visit South Carolina in 2026? Open → | Will Donald Trump visit South Carolina before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.878 | 65.0% (0.6500) | 49.0% (0.4900) | 61.0% (0.6100) | 45.0% (0.4500) | ✓ | |
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Open → | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.878 | 10.0% (0.1000) | 92.0% (0.9200) | 11.0% (0.1100) | 90.0% (0.9000) | ✓ | |
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026? Open → | Will Fomo launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.877 | 36.0% (0.3600) | 72.0% (0.7200) | 27.0% (0.2700) | 80.0% (0.8000) | ✓ | |
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Open → | Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.873 | 69.0% (0.6900) | 35.0% (0.3500) | 76.0% (0.7600) | 32.0% (0.3200) | ✓ | |
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Open → | Will Israel and Indonesia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.873 | 20.0% (0.2000) | 83.0% (0.8300) | 10.0% (0.1000) | 94.9% (0.9490) | ✓ | |
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Open → | Will Elon Musk be a trillionaire before 2027? Open → | 0.872 | 94.6% (0.9460) | 8.9% (0.0890) | 92.0% (0.9200) | 10.0% (0.1000) | ✓ | |
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Open → | Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? Open → | 0.871 | 0.6% (0.0060) | 99.5% (0.9950) | 3.2% (0.0320) | 98.0% (0.9800) | ✓ | |
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Open → | Will Vladimir Padrino López be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? Open → | 0.870 | 0.4% (0.0040) | 99.9% (0.9990) | 2.0% (0.0200) | 98.3% (0.9830) | ✓ | |
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? Open → | Will Donald Trump visit North Korea before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.870 | 21.0% (0.2100) | 82.0% (0.8200) | 12.0% (0.1200) | 92.0% (0.9200) | ✓ | |
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Open → | Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Open → | 0.865 | 89.0% (0.8900) | 12.0% (0.1200) | 92.0% (0.9200) | 10.0% (0.1000) | ✓ | |
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Open → | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? Open → | 0.863 | 10.0% (0.1000) | 90.1% (0.9010) | 12.0% (0.1200) | 89.0% (0.8900) | ✓ | |
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Open → | Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Open → | 0.863 | 7.0% (0.0700) | 93.1% (0.9310) | 5.0% (0.0500) | 96.0% (0.9600) | ✓ | |
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Open → | Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.862 | 24.0% (0.2400) | 77.0% (0.7700) | 20.0% (0.2000) | 84.0% (0.8400) | ✓ | |
Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026? Open → | Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.860 | 20.0% (0.2000) | 83.0% (0.8300) | 21.0% (0.2100) | 82.0% (0.8200) | ✓ | |
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? Open → | Will Donald Trump visit Germany before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.857 | 66.0% (0.6600) | 49.0% (0.4900) | 54.0% (0.5400) | 72.0% (0.7200) | ✓ | |
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Open → | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? Open → | 0.855 | 21.0% (0.2100) | 80.0% (0.8000) | 25.0% (0.2500) | 76.0% (0.7600) | ✓ | |
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Open → | Will Dinorah Figuera be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? Open → | 0.855 | 0.2% (0.0020) | 99.9% (0.9990) | 1.0% (0.0100) | 99.6% (0.9960) | ✓ | |
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Open → | Will Jorge Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? Open → | 0.855 | 0.7% (0.0070) | 99.4% (0.9940) | 3.7% (0.0370) | 97.0% (0.9700) | ✓ | |
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Open → | Will Richard Grenell be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? Open → | 0.855 | 0.2% (0.0020) | 99.9% (0.9990) | 0.9% (0.0090) | 99.2% (0.9920) | ✓ | |
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Open → | Will Donald Trump visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.854 | 43.0% (0.4300) | 63.0% (0.6300) | 43.0% (0.4300) | 63.0% (0.6300) | ✓ | |
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026? Open → | Will Donald Trump visit Canada before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.854 | 25.0% (0.2500) | 78.0% (0.7800) | 33.0% (0.3300) | 70.0% (0.7000) | ✓ | |
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Open → | Will Donald Trump visit France before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.854 | 96.7% (0.9670) | 9.9% (0.0990) | 97.5% (0.9750) | 3.0% (0.0300) | ✓ | |
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? Open → | Will Donald Trump visit Russia before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.854 | 18.0% (0.1800) | 83.0% (0.8300) | 15.0% (0.1500) | 89.0% (0.8900) | ✓ | |
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026? Open → | Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027? Open → | 0.854 | 2.6% (0.0260) | 97.5% (0.9750) | 8.5% (0.0850) | 94.8% (0.9480) | ✓ |